A review of observed and projected changes in climate for the islands in the Caribbean     

A.V. Karmalkar  M.A. Taylor  J. Campbell  T. Stephenson  M. New  A. Centella  A. Benzanilla  J. Charlery 《Atmósfera》2013,26(2):283-309

Observed and projected changes in climate have serious socio-economic implications for the Caribbean islands. This article attempts to present basic climate change information—based on previous studies, available observations and climate model simulations—at spatial scales relevant for islands in the Caribbean. We use the General Circulation Model (GCM) data included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and the UK Hadley Centre regional climate model (RCM) data to provide both present-day and scenario-based future information on precipitation and temperature for individual island states. Gridded station observations and satellite data are used to study 20th century climate and to assess the performance of climate models. With main focus on precipitation, we also discuss factors such as sea surface temperature, sea level pressure and winds that affect seasonal variations in precipitation. The CMIP3 ensemble mean and the RCM successfully capture the large-scale atmospheric circulation features in the region, but show difficulty in capturing the characteristic bimodal seasonal cycle of precipitation. Future drying during the wet season in this region under climate change scenarios has been noted in previous studies, but the magnitude of change is highly uncertain in both GCM and RCM simulations. The projected decrease is more prominent in the early wet season erasing the mid-summer drought feature in the western Caribbean. The RCM simulations show improvements over the GCM mainly due to better representation of landmass, but its performance is critically dependent on the driving GCM. This study highlights the need for high-resolution observations and ensemble of climate model simulations to fully understand climate change and its impacts on small islands in the Caribbean.  相似文献   

基岩岛屿地下水数值模拟发展研究现状          下载免费PDF全文

王大庆  许颢砾  邓正栋  丁志斌  倪博睿  周泽林  赵小兰 《中国地质调查》2014,6(3):68-74

基岩岛屿占我国岛屿的90%以上,且岛屿上的淡水资源十分珍贵。目前,岛屿上的供水(船运、雨水收集、海水淡化等)存在成本高、设备易坏等缺点。因此,岛屿的地下水资源无疑是优质、可靠、稳定的供水源。为了更好地开发基岩岛屿地下水资源,认为针对基岩岛屿地下水模拟,从地下水理论、地下水模拟的国内外研究现状和模拟模型等方面进行了综述。总结认为: 基岩岛屿的地下水多以“淡水蘑菇体”的形式储存,有别于沙质岛屿; 模拟模型应概化为横向各项同性的达西流或非达西流,或二者的耦合模型,并归纳了相应的地下水流运动方程; 基岩岛屿地下水模拟模型应分为孔隙型、裂隙型和孔隙-裂隙型3种类型; 在岛屿边界设定上,基岩海岸应设为隔水边界,沙质海岸应设为定水头边界。综述研究认为: 基岩岛屿地下水模拟模型应尽可能精细、完整、精准地刻画基岩岛屿的地质地貌,设置完整的岛屿补径排项; 模拟时,应准确对应基岩岛屿的地下水类型,选准模拟方法与模拟软件; 模型验证工作也是十分重要,需多次与岛屿水量均衡,且与实测水量和水位作对照,不断地修善模型。以上综述成果为我国今后开展基岩岛屿地下水数据模拟提供了理论依据。  相似文献   

南麂列岛中华蛸(Octopus sinensis)形态与遗传多样性分析     

李嘉华  陈舜  陈万东  谢尚微  倪孝品  郑小东 《海洋与湖沼》2022,53(2):486-495

2020年6~12月在南麂列岛采捕一种中大型章鱼44只,描述了形态特征,采用多元分析方法分析了形态多样性,并比较了与真蛸的差异,利用线粒体细胞色素氧化酶亚基I(COI)基因序列构建了系统发育树,并计算了Kimura-2-Parameter(K2P)遗传距离。结果表明,此种章鱼形态特征与中华蛸基本一致,而与真蛸存在显著的形态差异:其第二、三对腕的扩大吸盘位于第12~15个吸盘之间,而真蛸则位于第15~19个吸盘之间;茎化腕吸盘数少于真蛸;舌叶指数小于真蛸。主成分分析与判别分析能将真蛸群体显著区分开,判别准确率为100%,而其余四个群体(南麂列岛与三个中华蛸群体)间存在重叠;聚类分析表明南麂列岛群体与中华蛸更近,二者均与真蛸存在较大距离。在遗传多样性分析中,南麂列岛群体单倍型4个,单倍型多样性水平为0.320±0.121,多态位点6个,核苷酸多样性指数为0.001 11;系统发育树表明,该群体与中华蛸亲缘关系最近,K2P遗传距离0.14%,而与真蛸复合体其他类型为2.96%~12.11%。因此,从形态和分子水平鉴定南麂列岛章鱼为中华蛸。  相似文献   

Application of 50 multi-dimensional discrimination diagrams and significance tests: deciphering compositional similarities and differences between Hawaiian and Icelandic volcanism     

《International Geology Review》2012,54(12):1553-1572

As an innovative approach, I use multi-dimensional diagrams presented by our group during 2004–2013 and respective probability estimates for the newer diagrams to evaluate similarities and differences between the same magma types (subalkaline basalt, basic magma other than subalkaline basalt, and intermediate magma) from the Hawaiian Islands and Iceland. The known ocean island setting of the Hawaiian Islands was reproduced from these 50 multi-dimensional diagrams for basic, intermediate, and acid magmas. The possible influence of the mid-ocean ridge system on Icelandic magmas was also confirmed from the diagrams for basic rocks. Evaluating magma compositional similarities and differences between the Hawaiian Islands and Iceland was complemented by the application of significance tests. Statistical inferences for the chemical elements and, more importantly, their log-ratios, successfully explained the similarities and differences in the tectonic settings for these two regions.  相似文献   

南海主要岛礁概率海啸风险评估          下载免费PDF全文

赵广生  牛小静 《海岸工程》2021,40(1):1-9

影响地震海啸的震源参数众多且具有很强的不确定性,充分评估海啸风险需要大量的情景模拟。本文基于建立的概率海啸风险模型,采用一种高效的海啸模拟方法,评估了南海主要岛礁的概率海啸风险。通过对历史地震数据的分析,综合考虑震级、震中位置、震源深度的随机性,形成了百万数量级的潜在地震情景集,并通过叠加近似方法实现了大量地震情景引发海啸过程的模拟。该方法将数量庞大的地震海啸情景转化为有限的单位源水位扰动的传播计算,利用单位扰动源的传播演进数据库,计算目标位置的水位波动过程,可以很大程度上降低大规模情景模拟的计算负担。基于大规模情景模拟,结合各情景出现的概率,客观地给出了南海主要岛礁的海啸波高重现期,为海岛防灾减灾提供参考。研究结果表明,大多数目标岛礁处百年一遇的海啸波高不超过0.4 m。南海内不同位置处的海啸风险有较大差异,东沙群岛附近百年一遇的海啸波高超过0.6 m,而西沙的永乐群岛和南沙群岛的海啸波高显著低于其他区域。  相似文献   

Factors controlling the survival of coastal dunes during multiple hurricane impacts in 2004 and 2005: Santa Rosa barrier island, Florida   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Vanda Claudino-Sales  Ping Wang  Mark H. Horwitz   《Geomorphology》2008,95(3-4):295-315

Santa Rosa Island is an 85 km-long, wave-dominated low-lying barrier island situated along the northwestern Florida coast, facing the Gulf of Mexico. The entire island was severely impacted by Ivan, a strong category 3 hurricane that made landfall about 45 km to the west in September of 2004. Ten months later in July of 2005, Dennis, another category 3 hurricane, made landfall about 30 km east of the western tip of the island. Santa Rosa Island is characterized by well-developed but relatively low dunefields, described in this paper as incipient and established dunes, based on the presence of grassy and woody types of vegetation, respectively. The dunes were severely eroded by the two hurricanes. This paper investigates the factors controlling the regional-scale destruction and survival of the dunefields.Dune survival is controlled by: 1) hurricane characteristics, including intensity, duration, and frequency, and 2) morphological parameters including width of the barrier island, height and width of the dunefields, vegetation type, distance of the dunes to the ocean, and continuity of the dunefields. Three processes of dune destruction are described including, from most to least severe, inundation, overwash, and scarping. The interaction of all the above factors determines the different dune responses to the storm impacts. In general, the extensive and densely woody vegetated dunefields near the bay-side shoreline survived the storms, while the discontinuous dunes with grassy vegetation near the Gulf shoreline were almost completely destroyed.  相似文献   

Leaf litter decomposition in remote oceanic islands: The role of macroinvertebrates vs. microbial decomposition of native vs. exotic plant species     

《Limnologica》2014

Freshwater communities on remote oceanic islands can be depauperate due to the influence of biogeographic processes that operate over a range of spatial scales, influencing the colonization of organisms, and events that shape local freshwater assemblages. The consequences of this paucity in organism diversity for the functioning of these ecosystems are, however, not well understood.Here, we examine the relative decomposition rate of leaf litter of native vs. exotic origin by aquatic macroinvertebrates and microbial communities in an isolated and depauperate oceanic environment.Bags containing a standard amount of leaf litter of each of 10 tree species (5 native and 5 non-native species) were deployed on two streams. Two types of bags differing in mesh size were used to allow or prevent the access of leaf litter to macroinvertebrates, respectively. Over a period of 28 days, mass loss of leaf litter was similar in the two bag types suggesting that macroinvertebrates had little influence on the break down of leaf litter in this system. In addition, there was no difference in mass loss of leaf litter of native and exotic origin. Decomposition rates were highly species-specific suggesting that decomposition rates were related to inhibitory substance specific of each leaf species. Our results add to the wider literature by showing that in depauperate and isolated ecosystems, and in contrast to temperate continental ecosystems, decomposition of plant litter by aquatic macroinvertebrates is negligible.  相似文献   

浙江海岛沙滩质量评价体系及其应用研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

姜呈浩  时连强  程林  夏小明 《海洋学研究》2014,32(1):56-63

在参考国内外主要沙滩质量评价体系的基础上,结合浙江省海岛沙滩的具体状况,构建了适用于浙江省海岛沙滩的质量评价体系,包括3大类7个亚类共29个因子。运用该体系对浙江海岛63个沙滩进行了评价,结果显示浙江海岛沙滩质量总体处于中等水平,其中五星级沙滩有7个,四星级沙滩有19个,三星级沙滩有29个,二星级沙滩有8个,表明该评价体系具有较好的适用性。  相似文献   

温岭海岛潮间带大型底栖生物的群落结构   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

江海华  彭欣  肖国强  张永普  张炯明  方军  蔡景波 《海洋学研究》2014,32(3):78-86

为了解浙江温岭海岛潮间带大型底栖生物在沿海经济快速发展背景下的群落结构变化,2011年10月和2012年4月对温岭8个海岛8条断面开展了春、秋季2个航次的调查。本次调查共鉴定出潮间带大型底栖生物96种,包括软体动物40种,藻类29种,甲壳动物15种,多毛类6种,棘皮动物6种;平均生物量为1 794.16±1 148.08 g/m²,平均丰度为679±497 ind/m²,生物量和丰度均为秋季高于春季。温岭潮间带大型底栖生物主要以藤壶-荔枝螺群落为主,主要优势种为日本笠藤壶Tetraclita japonica和疣荔枝螺Thais clavigera,其生物量和丰度占80%以上,优势度非常明显。运用ABC曲线、等级聚类和nMDS对大型底栖生物群落结构分析发现,群落结构已受到中度干扰,稳定性差;与周边的洞头列岛、南麂列岛和嵊泗列岛相比,物种数仅为其一半左右。这种分布情况与其所处的生境有关,同时也表明受到人类活动(如污染和采捕等)的影响,群落结构次生化。  相似文献   

南麂列岛海域蟹类群落结构及其与环境因子的关系     

谢旭  俞存根  蔡厚才  郑基  陈万东  伍尔魏  夏陆军  毕耜瑶 《海洋学报》2017,39(10):65-77

根据2013年11月、2014年2月、5月、9月在南麂列岛国家海洋自然保护区海域进行生物资源调查所获得的资料,分析了南麂列岛海域蟹类种类组成、优势种、生物多样性等群落结构特征,并定量分析了群落结构与水文环境因子之间的关系。结果表明,周年4个季度月调查共鉴定出蟹类21种,隶属7科、12属,其中优势种为三疣梭子蟹（Portunus trituberculatus）、日本蟳（Charybdis bimaculata）和双斑蟳（Charybdis bimaculata）3种。不同季节的蟹类种类组成差异较大,而优势种类组成变化较少,其中,以秋季的蟹类种类数最多,冬季最少。从不同水深区域的渔获种类分布趋势来看,蟹类种类以20~30 m水深带较多,30~40 m水深带较少。夏季多样性指数低于其他季节,以水深来看,多样性指数在10~20 m水深带较高,30~40 m水深带较低,蟹类多样性指数与水深呈反比。根据冗余分析认为,水深、水温和盐度是影响调查海域蟹类种类组成和群落结构特征的主要环境因子。  相似文献